Player props, explained
Overs, unders, decimal odds and the bookmaker's margin, in plain English. Then what our A to E Matchup grade means and how to read the board.
What is a player prop?
A bet on one player's stat in one game, rather than on who wins. The bookmaker sets a line and you pick a side.
Over or under. Over 6.5 wins with 7 or more catches; under 6.5 wins with 6 or fewer.
Half-point lines like 6.5 can't land exactly, so there's no push. On a whole-number line, landing on it is a push and your stake comes back.
Yes/no props such as “anytime touchdown” work the same way with an implied line of 0.5.
How to read decimal odds
Australian bookmakers show decimal odds: the total you get back for every $1 staked, including your stake.
At $1.90, a $10 bet returns $19 if it wins: your $10 back plus $9 profit. At $2.50, the same $10 returns $25.
Every price also says how likely the bookmaker thinks the result is. Divide 1 by the odds to get the implied chance: 1 ÷ 1.90 = 52.6%. That's also your break-even: to come out square at $1.90 you need to win 52.6% of the time.
Shorter odds (closer to $1) mean a likelier result and a smaller payout; longer odds mean the opposite.
| Odds | $10 returns | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| $1.50 | $15.00 | 66.7% |
| $1.80 | $18.00 | 55.6% |
| $1.90 | $19.00 | 52.6% |
| $2.00 | $20.00 | 50.0% |
| $2.50 | $25.00 | 40.0% |
| $3.00 | $30.00 | 33.3% |
| $5.00 | $50.00 | 20.0% |
The margin, and how to remove it
Add up the implied chances of both sides and you'll get more than 100%. The extra is the bookmaker's margin: their built-in profit.
Two prices
Over 4.5 receptions @ $1.87, under @ $1.95.
Add the chances
53.5% + 51.3% = 104.8%. The extra 4.8% is the margin.
Take it out
Scale both back to 100%: over 51.0% (fair odds $1.96), under 49.0% ($2.04).
Odds-to-chance calculator
Enter a price, and the other side's price if you have it. Pick an example market to start.
e.g. the over
Optional: lets us remove the margin
Optional, e.g. your own estimate
Everything is worked out on your device. This is a price tool only: it isn't connected to the Matchup grade, which doesn't use odds.
What the Matchup grade means
Every prop gets one letter describing the matchup, built from stats only. A strongly favours the over, C is neutral and E strongly favours the under. Odds and prices aren't inputs.
- Matchup grade A: Strongly favours the over
Strongly favours the over
The top 10% of matchups in that market for the over.
- Matchup grade B: Leans over
Leans over
The next 20%: the stats tilt towards the over.
- Matchup grade C: Neutral
Neutral
The middle 40%: no clear lean either way.
- Matchup grade D: Leans under
Leans under
The next 20%: the stats tilt towards the under.
- Matchup grade E: Strongly favours the under
Strongly favours the under
The bottom 10%: the stats strongly favour the under.
Every grade comes with a one-line reason, for example: “Leans under: Freiermuth stayed under this line in 8 of his last 10; …”
What goes into it
Only data from before the game. Not every ingredient applies to every sport.
- Form:
- Recent games and the hit rate at today's line
- Home and away:
- How the player goes at home and on the road
- Head to head:
- Past games against this opponent
- Defence vs position:
- How this defence treats his position
- Position vs line:
- How players at his position did against their own lines against this opponent lately
- Pace and volume:
- NBA scoring pace, NFL plays, NHL shot volume, MLB park
- Rest:
- Days off and back-to-backs
- MLB matchup:
- The opposing starter and lineup
- Role trend:
- Minutes, ice time, targets or plate appearances
- Projection:
- Summit's own stats projection for the game
A stats ranking, not a value call. An A means the stats favour the over strongly compared with other props in that market. It doesn't mean the price is good, and it isn't a promise of profit. Prices are on the board for information, so you can weigh them yourself.
How it's built. Each sport's weights were fitted on the 2024–25 seasons and checked on 2026 games they never saw. The grade is a percentile within each market, so roughly 10% of props are A, 20% B, 40% C, 20% D and 10% E.
Injuries are shown, not scored. Injuries and minutes limits aren't inputs; an injury badge sits next to the grade so you can see them. Props without enough history show “–” until they can be graded.
Grades are kept. Live grades are frozen 6.5 hours before the game and can't be edited. The Grade Record settles them on official box scores and shows how often each grade's props went over and under.
Hit rates and sample sizes
A hit rate is how often the player cleared this line in recent games. Useful, but easy to over-read.
L5, L10, L20 and H2H
- L5: the last 5 games. Reacts fast to form, but swings a lot.
- L10: a balance of current form and a steadier sample.
- L20: slower to react to a new role, but less noisy.
- H2H: games against tonight's opponent. Usually a tiny sample: colour, not evidence.
Compare it with the break-even
7 from 10 sounds great, but at $1.40 you need to win 71% just to break even. 4 from 10 at $3.00 clears the 33% you need. A hit rate only means something next to the price.
Small samples mislead. Five games can be a hot streak; we grey out figures with too few results so they don't look more certain than they are.
How to read the board
Each row is one prop with its Matchup grade. Filter by sport, market, game and grade.
- 1
Player · prop. The player, their team, the market and the line, like Receptions 6.5.
- 2
Over. The average Australian price for the over at the main line, for information. It isn't part of the grade.
- 3
Proj. Our stats projection for the game: the middle of a range, not a promise.
- 4
L10. How many of the last 10 games went over this line.
- 5
Grade. The Matchup grade, A (strongly over) to E (strongly under), with its one-line reason.
Props by sport
The same idea in every sport, with a few things worth knowing for each.
Receptions
Puka Nacua over 6.5 receptions @ $2.05
Only catches count, not targets. A player with 9 targets can still finish on 5 catches, so watch target share and the matchup.
Hits
Aaron Judge over 0.5 hits @ $1.53
At 0.5 the line is just “at least one hit”. Batting order matters: a leadoff hitter gets more plate appearances than a no. 9.
Shots on goal
Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots @ $1.90
Blocked and missed shots don't count, only ones on target. Power-play time and the opposing goalie's team style move this a lot.
Points
Jayson Tatum under 27.5 points @ $1.90
Minutes drive everything. Blowouts cut starters' minutes, and a teammate's absence can push usage and shots up.
Example prices only. Settlement rules, such as overtime or a player not taking part, vary by bookmaker: check yours.
Put it into practice
See every prop graded on today's board. Free during early access.
18+ only. Summit is an analytics tool, not a bookmaker.
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Summit is an analytics tool, not a bookmaker, and doesn't take bets. Grades and model picks are research, not tips or guarantees: every bet can lose, and past results don't predict future ones. Set a budget and stick to it. For free, confidential support 24/7, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au. More on responsible gambling